Form book points to India

Match facts

The Big Picture

With all due to respect to Bangladesh, the teams with the more commanding records were always expected to meet in the final. After going at each other for the past two months, Sri Lanka and India clash at the Shere Bangla National Cricket Stadium on Wednesday, and if recent encounters are any clue, India are the favourites.

That's not a tag they have ever been comfortable with. Finals of multi-team tournaments have long been India's dreaded bogie, but against Sri Lanka there will at least be the comfort of familiarity - they have played each other 22 times in the last 19 months, with India winning 13 and losing seven times. Since MS Dhoni took over the leadership India have reached four finals and won two. Those two losses, against Sri Lanka and Pakistan in the summer of 2008, left a sour taste and India will be keen to impose their strength.

On the other hand, Kumar Sangakkara has only won one ODI series since he became captain in early 2009. Defeats to India in the home tri-series and the away tour must rankle, and his leadership has come under heavy fire of late.

A look back at the league phase, which ended on Monday with India comfortably handing Bangladesh their fourth loss in a row, indicates that neither they nor Sri Lanka had a tough time reaching this point. Both batting line-ups are in form, the fielding has improved significantly from when they played each other in December, but it is the bowling which is still a concern. No frontline fast bowler from either side has averaged less than 5.38 runs an over or 31.20 per wicket, and the most successful bowler overall has been the allrounder Thissara Perera, whose five wickets have come at 18.20 and 4.33 an over.

Inaccurate bowling at the start and during the death overs hampered both India and Sri Lanka in the limited-overs series before the New Year. India's fast bowlers were lukewarm in their first two games of this series, failing to defend a total of 279 against Sri Lanka and allowing Bangladesh to post 296 after that. The rookie Sudeep Tyagi has impressed in two games but is not a certainty for the final, Sreesanth has been wayward and expensive, and most of the responsibility has been shouldered by Zaheer Khan and Ashish Nehra. Both have had more off days than good ones.

The situation is even more worrying for Sri Lanka. Apart from Chanaka Welegedara's five-wicket haul in the first game against India, no pace bowler has been impressive, and the pick of the attack has been the young offspinner, Suraj Randiv. Their two most experienced bowlers, Nuwan Kulasekara and Thilan Thushara, have been poor and Suranga Lakmal all over the place. Too much pressure has been put on Randiv and Perera, and neither can be expected to carry Sri Lanka's attack.

After Sri Lanka's defeat on Sunday, Sangakkara admitted that the result had robbed them of some momentum going into the final. The mantra for this series has been simple - field first. With that in mind, the bowling will have to be extremely proficient.

Form guide

Watch out for...

The battle of the openers: India's first-choice openers, Gambhir and Sehwag, have added 44 for the first wicket in two games this tournament; Upul Tharanga and Tillakaratne Dilshan have put on 35 in two games. Dilshan and Sehwag have both missed two games, but will return for the final. How Gambhir and Tharanga adjust to having their stronger and flashier accomplices back in the saddle could be crucial.

Suraj Randiv v Yuvraj Singh: Four innings have resulted in just 96 runs for Yuvraj, and in the last outing against Bangladesh he looked particularly uneasy against spin. The 25 deliveries he faced for his 13 runs were all against spin, and there was but one dominating shot. Against the offspinner Naeem Islam, a similar bowler to Randiv, Yuvraj managed eight runs in 18 balls before he was out lbw. Randiv has been impressive in not allowing batsmen to dominate, so watch this battle closely.

Team news

India: (probable) 1 Virender Sehwag, 2 Gautam Gambhir, 3 Virat Kohli, 4 Yuvraj Singh, 5 MS Dhoni (capt/wk), 6 Suresh Raina, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 Harbhajan Singh, 9 Zaheer Khan, 10 Ashish Nehra, 10 Sreesanth/Sudeep Tyagi.

With the team progressing smoothly to the finals, Sri Lanka may not tinker too much with their combination. At training on the eve of the final, Welegedara and Lakmal were practising a lot of yorkers and bouncers. Welegedera more yorkers, Lakmal more bouncers. Thushara was also seen trying to get bounce from short of a length. Sri Lanka will have to decide between one of them and Kulasekara.

Sri Lanka: (probable) 1 Upul Tharanga, 2 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (capt./wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5 Thilan Samaraweera, 6 Thilina Kandamby, 7 Thissara Perera, 8 Suraj Randiv, 9 Nuwan Kulasekara, 10 Thilan Thushara, 11 Chanaka Welegedara.

Stats and trivia

• The final will be the 121st ODI between India and Sri Lanka, a record for most matches played between two teams. Australia and West Indies have played 120, while Sri Lanka have played 119 against Pakistan.

• In neutral venues India hold a 19-11 advantage against Sri Lanka, and have won eight of the last 12. In Bangladesh, though, Sri Lanka have won three out of five.

• Sangakkara has an overall batting average of 35.72 against India, but in the last year he has done much better, averaging 46.78 at a strike rate of 91.48 in 14 matches since the beginning of 2009. In these 14 innings he has struck seven half-centuries. Mahela Jayawardene has struggled, though, scoring only 222 runs in 12 innings during this period.

• Among India's current batsmen, MS Dhoni and Gambhir have been the most successful (in terms of averages) against Sri Lanka: Dhoni averages 63.08 at a strike rate of 90.93 in 31 innings, while Gambhir averages 49.60 at a strike rate of 91.68 in 23 innings.

• All six matches in the tournament so far have been won by the team batting second.

Quotes

"I am fresh after the break and the youngsters got a chance. We have a good bench strength which is good for the team."
The extra time to rest up came handy for Sehwag.

"If he [Virender Sehwag] plays well, it will be crucial for India. If he doesn't, it will be good for us."
Seriously, Sangakkara?