Warne predicts Ashes nailbiter

Shane Warne believes that this winter's Ashes will be one of the most competitive of recent times, but nevertheless feels that England could be weighed down by history as they seek to become only the second team in two decades to win a Test series in Australia.

All the talk during the recent five-match ODI series was of the battle for "bragging rights", and while England made an early bid for the upper hand by surging to a 3-0 series win, Australia halted their momentum in impressive fashion with two emphatic victories in the final two games.

"I think 3-2 is a pretty true reflection of both sides," Warne told Cricinfo. "I don't think that either team, England or Australia, is dominant right now. In years gone by, you used to think Australia would win, but that England might have a chance if they played really well. Now you think that England can win, but both sides are really even. And that's the case in world cricket. The top three or four sides are all very even."

When England last toured Australia, in 2006-07, the gulf between the sides turned out to be yawning, as Warne and Glenn McGrath signed off from Test cricket by sealing a 5-0 whitewash in their final match at Sydney. Justin Langer also bowed out in that game, and with Adam Gilchrist and Matthew Hayden following suit prior to last summer's rematch, Australia's golden generation have all departed the scene, with the notable exception of the current captain, Ricky Ponting.

Warne, however, believes that the men who have replaced them are now growing into their roles. "Australia have not been quite as dominating since then, but they are through that transitional period now," he said. "The majority of the players have played 15 or 20 Tests, and though England are playing exceptional cricket, it's a tough ask to go to Australia and win. They've probably got the advantage right at the moment, but in my time, we lost one home series in 17 seasons, and two in 20 now. I think it's going to be a hell of a series.

"Whenever England play Australia it's always competitive," he added. "Our countries have a love-hate relationship because, deep down, I think we actually love each other. I think that's true. We've got India these days with all the money and the eyeballs that watch them play, but in pure cricket terms, the Ashes is the biggest series out of any in the world. Right now, the two teams are really close together, and I think we'll see a high standard of cricket. Both sides are hungry and finding some form, and it's pretty even."

Whatever happens this winter, however, Warne does not believe that his Rajasthan Royals colleague, Shaun Tait, will agree to make a comeback in Test cricket, despite the hype that surrounded his 100mph spell at Lord's on Sunday, and his integral role in Australia's two face-saving victories in the final two ODIs.

"I've got a lot of time for Shaun Tait, but he's been through some tough times, so I think he'll stick to his decision," said Warne. "He got messed around a bit by Cricket Australia, and it lead to him making his decision [to retire from Tests], but he's an exciting bowler. He's got pure pace, and I was lucky enough to captain him for Rajasthan Royals in India this year. He had some fantastic games for us, even though some of the conditions didn't suit his swinging style."

Despite featuring in the World Twenty20, Tait had not played in an ODI since early 2009 when he was drafted into the Australia squad midway through the recent series. Mindful of his susceptibility to injury, Ricky Ponting used him in five two-over bursts in the third match at Old Trafford, before increasing the length of his spells as the series progressed.

"He's not a workhorse, he's a strike and impact bowler, and some of the captains he's had don't appreciate this," said Warne. "He's the fastest bowler in the world, but I think he understands his body now. He's realised he can do what he does now and his body will last, but if he pushes it any more something might give. If he was asked to bowl 14 or 15 overs in a Test, you might get him to change his mind. But to bowl 15 to 20 with his action is too many."

One man whom Warne does believe is on the verge of a Test appearance is the young legspinner, Steven Smith, who impressed with his temperament and talent during the one-dayers, and is now likely to feature in the neutral series against Pakistan, given that Nathan Hauritz has been ruled out of the remainder of the tour through injury. While reluctant to curse him with his direct blessing, Warne admitted he was impressed with what he had seen so far from Smith.

"He's a work in progress," said Warne. "He's nowhere near the finished article, but he's hungry and he's got all the tricks and all the toys, and he wants to learn. He's good in the field and a good batsman as well, and he gives Australia a lot of variety in their attack. I wouldn't be surprised if Australia play two spinners in every Test in Australia this year, especially given the way that Mitchell Johnson, Smith and Hauritz can all bat."

For the time being, however, Warne's focus will be on an entirely different field of play. He is currently in Las Vegas, getting ready to captain the 888poker team in the World Series of Poker, the most prestigious event in the game. "My hobby has now become my real passion, and this is as big as it gets," he said. "This is like the Ashes of poker, or the World Cup. It's the pinnacle where the best players play.

"There's nearly 7000 entrants each year, and last year I played exceptionally well to get to 24th place on day three, with 185,000 chips. But then I copped an absolute horror beat, which was a shame because it ended up knocking me out. But I'm loving the atmosphere this year. I played in one lead-up tournament and came 11th out of 94, which meant just missing out on the final table. If I play well and get a bit of luck, hopefully I can go a long way into the World Series main event."