New Zealand's biggest setback may have come well before the team landed at Chennai. Shane Bond was struggling for fitness as early as August and subsequently declared himself unavailable, while Chris Cairns chose to stay at home for the birth of his child. Both Cairns and Bond are attacking bowlers, capable of winkling batsmen out even on seemingly dead tracks. More importantly, they have some experience behind them, and on the tour of India, they would have posed a very real threat to the home batting, especially with the new ball.
As it is now, New Zealand's attack does not appear capable of winning Test
matches against batsmen of the calibre of Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid,
VVS Laxman and Virender Sehwag. Against the Board President's XI in a
rain-shortened game, Ian Butler, Daniel Vettori, Paul Wiseman, Scott Styris
and Michael Mason between them could only pick up one wicket in 85 overs.
Against India A at Rajkot, Daryl Tuffey, Jacob Oram, Styris, Vettori, Craig
McMillan and Wiseman struggled to make regular breakthroughs against a
batting line-up that, although purported to be India's second string, was
not as strong as it could have been.
Perhaps the surfaces at Visakhapatnam and Rajkot were not too bowler-friendly, but they are not likely to be tremendously more so at Ahmedabad and Mohali. New Zealand's spinners in particular looked toothless on both wickets. Wiseman has few variations and no loop on his predictable offbreak, while Vettori was erratic and his deliveries did not get any bite off the track. Murali Kartik's didn't either, but while India have Harbhajan Singh and Anil Kumble waiting for the big occasion, Vettori is New Zealand's frontline spinner.
The pitch at Motera, Ahmedabad, is likely to be a slow one, and spinners
should flourish more than fast bowlers. The dispiriting performance of New
Zealand's spinners thus far indicates that they may not be able to take
advantage of Motera's conditions. Perhaps their fast bowlers will do better
at Mohali, but by then, they are already likely to be one Test down and
fighting to merely square the series, rather than win it.
Stephen Fleming still has a few days of practice and preparation before the
first Test starts on October 8. They won't be enough to revamp the entire
bowling, but New Zealand will be trying to sort out the basics, such as
line and length, so that they can field an attack that can at least
frustrate, if not devastate.