India's best chance or worst?

The last time MS Dhoni missed a Test that wasn't the last of the series was back in January 2010, in Chittagong. It was almost like a stern schoolteacher had not shown up in class. Virender Sehwag called Bangladesh an ordinary team, proceeded to throw away a good start, lobbing a short ball straight to extra cover, India were bowled out for 243, led by just one run in the first innings, but managed to win in the end. Dhoni didn't like what was said and done. In his first press conference back, Dhoni made it clear that the cat was back, and that the mice had had enough play. He said he wasn't a man to make statements. "I like to make statements on the field. I am a practical guy."

When Dhoni missed the start of this series, the Virat Kohli-led India departed from set ways. Kohli kept talking aggression; Dhoni doesn't talk about anything. Fields generally took longer to spread. Bhuvneshwar Kumar might have been ruled out by injury, but there was no guarantee he would have been selected in a pace attack whose focus was on pace. For the first time, India looked beyond R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja, neither of whom has impressive numbers as a spinner in overseas conditions. There was more desperation to what India did. An acknowledgement that old ways need to be changed if they are not working. And it could be out of lack of faith in defensive techniques, but when India reached a position where they could have retreated for a draw, they risked defeat trying to go for a win.

It might be uncharitable to the man who has brought much calm and composure to India's cricket, but the last Test seemed like too much fun was being had. You expected Dhoni to come back and chastise them and ground them. He didn't. Not at least in the pre-match press conference. He didn't mind India's approach on the last day. He was happy with the way Kohli went about his work. "He is an aggressive character and slightly different to what I am, but at the end of the day you don't want all individuals to captain the same way," Dhoni said of Kohli. "Because in that you miss the character of the individual, and that's special about him."

All that doesn't change anything for Dhoni as India enter arguably the most formidable venue in international cricket. Kohli was 16 days old when Australia last lost a Test in Brisbane. The pace attack they lost to read Marshall, Patterson, Ambrose, Walsh. India have Ishant Sharma, Varun Aaron and Mohammed Shami. Yet Australia might want to go easy on the green because if ever India are going to win a Test outside Asia, it is on green seamers.

India's bowlers just can't take 20 wickets for fewer than the opposition when they are made to work for them. England found that out when they rolled out a treacherous pitch at Lord's earlier this year. They had just played India into the game. During the third and fourth Tests, they provided pitches that had the bounce but not the lateral movement. They won easily. Some of India's last few away wins have been in low-scoring games: Durban 2010, Johannesburg 2006, Lord's earlier this year. India almost won Johannesburg late last year because they utilised the seaming conditions on the first three days. When it became hard work in the final innings, India couldn't bowl South Africa out the second time around.

India always look at green seamers as their best chance to win. "More often than not I prefer wickets that are on the greener side," Dhoni said. "The reason being our bowlers become much more effective. The batsmen, they will have to formulate a way to score runs on that kind of wicket. But if you see the stats we have done well on the wickets that have helped the fast bowlers. It makes our job slightly easier to get the opposition batsmen out. That's where we have struggled to some extent."

India's best chance Gabba might be, but it is still the farthest thing from their being even close to favourites. It's just to say that while India don't stand a chance on normal bouncy pitches, the seaming tracks give their bowlers a chance to take 20 wickets. If they are not going to win a Test in 10 on normal away pitches, they are likely to win one out of 10 on the ones where their bowlers can become threatening.

India will also see an opportunity in Michael Clarke's absence. They barely let Shaun Marsh score a run the last time they were here. This is Australia's least tested batting line-up of all the times they have come to Gabba during this period of domination. You never know what a sensational session with the ball can do. It won't come around, though, if the Indian quicks bowl like they did in Adelaide no matter how helpful conditions at Gabba are.