Hosts face long odds as Test cricket returns to Bulawayo

July 28-August 1, Bulawayo
Start time 09:30 local (07:30 GMT)

For all the feelings of excitement at Test cricket's return to Bulawayo, there is the reality that the home side will find themselves overwhelmed by the sheer gulf between their visitors and themselves in every way.

In personnel terms, New Zealand, albeit without recently retired Brendon McCullum, bring 379 Test caps between them to Bulawayo. Zimbabwe have just 86 and, of those, a third belong to one man - Hamilton Masakadza - who was relieved of the captaincy in May. Masakadza will no doubt operate as senior counsel to new captain Graeme Cremer, who will lead the Test side for the first time. His counterpart, Kane Williamson, is also on his maiden outing as Test captain, but has experienced heads like Martin Guptill and Ross Taylor to turn to.

One of the first things they would remind Williamson of was how hard Zimbabwe pushed them the last time the sides met at Queens. In November 2011, the match went down to the last session of the last day before New Zealand eventually claimed the honours. Since then, Zimbabwe visited New Zealand, were soundly beaten, and have played just 10 other Test matches.

New Zealand went only to play four times that number and are a much more assured side than they were five years ago. Although they have lost two of their last three Test series, both against Australia, they had been on a solid run before that. They drew in England and the UAE, and beat Sri Lanka away, West Indies away and India at home. Their climb up the Test rankings has not been as dramatic as their headline-grabbing showings in limited-overs cricket but it has been steady, and they now find themselves at No.5. If the idea of two Test divisions ever becomes a reality, New Zealand would play in the top division, as things stand.

At the moment, Zimbabwe can only dream of getting there. Their dearth of fixtures has left them without a ranking at all, but after this series it is likely they will be on the table, joining at the bottom. They will want this to be a fresh start, so they can gradually set their sights on greater things.

Zimbabwe LLLLW
New Zealand LLWWL

Injuries to Tinashe Panyangara and Tendai Chatara have left Zimbabwe's pace pack with just two Test caps among four of them, and the lack of experience could be a cause for concern. Njabulo Ncube and Donald Tiripano have played a Test each while Michael Chinouya and Taurai Muzarabani are uncapped. The quartet have had the experience of Makhaya Ntini, South Africa's third-highest wicket-taker of all time, to draw on but may need to find the right balance between attacking and containing on what could be a stubborn surface.

Leg spin has been known to be a nemesis for Zimbabwean batsmen so Ish Sodhi's role could be the most important in the New Zealand attack. Sodhi caused problems for Zimbabwe A during last week's warm-up match at Harare Sports Club, when he took six wickets in total, including that of Test keeper Regis Chakabva twice. He will also be heartened by what he may see from the most recent match played at Queens, between Zimbabwe A and South Africa A. Despite a largely batsman-friendly surface, Keshav Maharaj and Dane Piedt took seven wickets between them to win the match for the tourists.

The hosts will cap at least one new player either at the top of the order or in the spin department. Prince Masvaure, who scored a century in the match between Zimbabwe A and South Africa A, could open in Vusi Sibanda's absence. Masvaure will have to be joined by one of Brian Chari or Chamu Chibhabha after Tino Mawoyo was ruled out with a hand injury. The No.4 spot left vacant by Brendan Taylor is likely to be filled by one of Sikandar Raza or Peter Moor, with the other slotting in at No. 5. With plenty of slower bowling options in the middle order, Zimbabwe could field just two quicks, of which one may be a debutant.

Zimbabwe: (probable) 1 Prince Masvaure, 2 Chamu Chibhabha/Brian Chari, 3 Hamilton Masakadza, 4 Peter Moor, 5 Sikandar Raza, 6 Craig Ervine, 7 Regis Chakabva (wk), 8 Sean Williams, 9 Graeme Cremer (capt), 10 Donald Tiripano/Michael Chinouya, 11 Njabulo Ncube

Playing their first Test since McCullum's retirement, New Zealand will be led by Kane Williamson for the first time. Henry Nicholls will fill in at No.4, and is surrounded by a strong line-up. With several spin options in their squad, New Zealand could opt for two spinners and two quicks with Doug Bracewell as their all-round option.

New Zealand: (probable) 1 Martin Guptill, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Henry Nicholls, 5 Ross Taylor, 6 BJ Watling (wk), 7 Doug Bracewell 8 Ish Sodhi, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Mark Craig/Michael Santner 11 Trent Boult/Matt Henry/Neil Wagner

The scarcity of Test cricket at Queens means there's not much historical data to go on, but conventional wisdom suggests that the surface will be slow and low, favouring an old-fashioned style of play. The match between Zimbabwe A and South Africa A which took place earlier this month may be the best indicator of what to expect. Brian Vitori, who played in that match, described the surface as flat and scores of 570 and 356 are evidence of that. However, turn came into play on the final day which suggests there may be some deterioration as the sun beats down. The late winter conditions are expected to be pleasant, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-20s over the five days.

"A few guys will remember that feeling and will know it's not impossible to put them under pressure and to do well."
Although Graeme Cremer was not part of the team that narrowly lost to New Zealand five years ago, he hopes those who were will remember how well they competed.

"We are going to play in a way that tries to give us the best chance of winning. It is tough to win here. We know we'll have to adapt quickly and be at our best. You don't tend to get pace and bounce like in other part so the world. It's about adapting, thinking on your feet."
Kane Williamson expects conditions to stand in New Zealand's way of victory, as much as the opposition, and hopes to be able to conquer both.