Indian win will make net run rate key for semi-final slot
Group E still holds plenty of interesting possibilities: South Africa, New Zealand and India all have a chance of making it to the semi-finals, but none of them have secured a place in the last four yet
S Rajesh in Durban
20-Sep-2007
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There's just one match to go in the Super Eights stage of the World
Twenty20 Cup, but Group E still holds plenty of interesting possibilities:
South Africa, New Zealand and India all have a chance of making it to the
semi-finals, but none of them have secured a place in the last four yet.
With two wins in their first two games, it seemed New Zealand might have
assured themselves of an early entry into the semis, but their two wins
were both by very narrow margins, which gives them a net run rate which is
very narrowly positive: +0.05. Both South Africa and India
have a higher NRR than that, which means that India - who are currently
two points behind New Zealand and South Africa - only need to win, by any
margin, to make it to the semis. South Africa can get there even if they
lose to India, but the margin of defeat has to be narrow enough to ensure
their NRR doesn't slip below 0.05.
For example, if India bat first and score 170, South Africa will have to
score at least 143 to ensure their NRR is better than New Zealand's, who
will then miss out on the last four. If South Africa bat first and score
170, India will have to chase it down in less than 16.4 overs to eliminate
South Africa from the tournament.
Of course South Africa can avoid all the arithmetic if they beat India,
in which case they will top the group and stay in Durban for the
semi-final on Saturday. And there's no question about who New Zealand will
be supporting in this game: all they need to make the cut is for South
Africa to beat India and push them out of the tournament.
S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo