A victory foretold

"On the day they were going to kill him, Santiago Nasar got up at five-thirty in the morning." It is doubtful whether, when Gabriel Marcia Marquez was penning the first lines of his classic novella Chronicle of a Death Foretold, he had a Test match between Pakistan and Australia at the MCG in mind. He captured immediately within them the impending sense of doom, the inevitability of the tragic fate that hung around Santiago Nasar, the unwilling and unknowing protagonist at the centre of the tale. And a similar sense reverberates around the fate of the second Test.

The real tragedy of Perth wasn't in the result or the second innings 72 - New Zealand were bowled out for a similar score recently after all and India's much-vaunted upper order was embarrassed repeatedly in India. What really lit the effigies and had analysts bemoaning the loss of competitiveness was the supine nature of the surrender, the demeaning of the concept of a contest. Apart from the first session, it never was one. If Pakistan can make it so in Melbourne, if they can shed blood, make Australia sweat and compete for five days, then neither camp, you sense, will be too unhappy.

However, Pakistan already slim chances of making a fist of it received a further blow when Inzamam-ul-Haq was ruled out due to his recurring back problem. In his absence, Yousuf Youhana will take over as captain - only his second Test in that role - while Asim Kamal or Yasir Hameed will battle it out to fill up the vacancy in the batting line-up.

Quite apart from this latest setback, it is difficult to see what remedial measures Pakistan's batsmen can make to such inherent technical and mental failings in the space of a week. They can call upon, at least, Shoaib Malik, whose composed presence can add some steel to a lower order that is little more than fodder for the likes of Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Michael Kasprowicz. They might be tempted too, to provide the resolve and grit of Kamal with its most searching examination yet.

But with an upper order in disarray, much will still depend on their bowling. Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Sami at least can take some memories from Perth, and Danish Kaneria might get more reward for his efforts here than he did at the WACA. But Shoaib's bursts, as dangerous as they can be, are rarely sustained and against a line-up as deep as Australia's, losing momentum is akin to losing the match.

So what can you say about Australia? There is something worryingly inevitable about this team. There is always someone; waiting to drag the team out of a hole, waiting to transform a crisis into a matchwinning situation, waiting in the wings to take over, be it a Michael Clarke or a Brett Lee. Matthew Hayden is in the middle of a poor run, yet has scored over 1000 runs in the calendar year, as have Justin Langer and Damien Martyn.

If Langer, who alone scored more than Pakistan at Perth, misses this match, they can still call upon the assured presence of Simon Katich. Their bowling attack, obviously, remains unchanged; Kasprowicz joins McGrath as the latest in a line of Australian fast bowlers who have exercised a complete stranglehold over Pakistani batsmen for more than a decade. Warne had, by his standards against Pakistan (79 wickets in 13 games), a quiet game at Perth and is unlikely to do so again.

And finally, there is the stark contrast between the two captains. Ponting was alert, sharp, a bundle of energy in the field and alive to situations. Furthermore, he looked in ominous form in the second innings at Perth. He was up against the worst of Inzamam - lethargic, uninspired, tactically rigid and, crucially, out of sorts with the bat. Youhana, given the unenviable task of taking over on the eve of the match, is unlikely to do much better.

It is against this backdrop of seemingly presaged gloom that the eighth Test between these two at the MCG and the first since 1990, takes place. Recent history is alluring; Sarfraz's spell in 1978, the battles between Wasim Akram and Mark Taylor 12 years later, Geoff Marsh's magnificent one-handed catch to dismiss Ijaz Ahmed in the same match.

Overall, Pakistan have won two Tests to Australia's three at this hallowed ground. In that 1990 game, Pakistan distinguished themselves by battling valiantly in a lost cause against an Australian side just beginning to assert its pre-eminence in the game. The hope all round is that this contest can match that one, but the belief remains that the chronicle of Australia's 300th Test win has already been foretold.

Australia (from): Justin Langer, Simon Katich, Matthew Hayden, Ricky Ponting (capt), Damien Martyn, Darren Lehmann, Michael Clarke, Adam Gilchrist (wk), Shane Warne, Jason Gillespie, Michael Kasprowicz, Glenn McGrath, Brett Lee.

Pakistan (from): Salman Butt, Imran Farhat, Yasir Hameed, Yousuf Youhana (capt), Younis Khan, Asim Kamal, Shoaib Malik, Abdul Razzaq, Shahid Afridi, Shoaib Akhtar, Mohammad Sami, Danish Kaneria, Kamran Akmal (wk), Naved-ul-Hasan, Mohammad Asif, Mohammad Khalil.