Caution to the win (26 May 1999)

26 May 1999

Caution to the win

Tony Cozier

LEICESTER - The priority is simple and obvious.

The one certain way for the West Indies to advance into the next round of the World Cup, the Super Sixes, is for them to win their remaining group matches, against Scotland here tomorrow and Australia in Manchester on Sunday.

"We are thinking of nothing else but winning," manager Clive Lloyd said yesterday.

"We have now won two in a row and we want to keep that habit going. The only way we can win the World Cup is to keep on winning our matches."

It is a sound psychological policy, particularly following Monday's important victory over previously unbeaten New Zealand in Southampton.

Lloyd noted that it had given the team "a tremendous boost in confidence".

But he and captain Brian Lara, now the strategists in the unavoidable absence of coach Malcolm Marshall, who is recovering from an abdominal operation in a Birmingham hospital, are obliged to consider another factor that could prove critical. It is the average run rate.

If, as is clearly possible, the West Indies, New Zealand and Australia complete their preliminary group equal on points and vying for two Super Six places behind Pakistan, average overall run rate would be used to separate them.

Such a scenario has to assume that all three defeat their remaining International Cricket Council (ICC) associate opponents (the West Indies and New Zealand over Scotland and Australia over Bangladesh), that Pakistan beat New Zealand and that Australia win Sunday's showdown.

The West Indies and Australia simultaneously play their lesser opponents tomorrow and the first thing on their agenda will be to ensure they win.

How significantly they can boost their run rates doing so could be equally vital.

The New Zealanders confront Pakistan, who have a 100 per cent record with wins over the West Indies, Scotland and Australia, in Derby on Friday.

Should they create an upset, they would virtually guarantee their place in the Super Sixes as their last opponents are weak, if enthusiastic, Scotland in Edinburgh on Monday. A loss to Pakistan would also bring their run rate into the equation - providing Australia beat the West Indies the day before.

The regulations list five ways, in descending order of priority, of separating teams finishing on equal points in the group stage.

The first is the most wins in the group matches and, given the above hypothesis, the West Indies, New Zealand and Australia would each have three.

It also eliminates the second criterion favouring the teams with the most victories since they would have had three each.

So it could come down to the third: run rate.

The rules state that this is "calculated by deducting from the average runs per over scored by that team, the average runs per over scored against that team".

At present, the West Indies' rate is 0.08, New Zealand's 0.42 and Australia's minus 0.05.

On the thousand-to-one chance that run rates are identical, the team with the higher number of wickets taken per balls bowled would be placed in the higher position.

On the million-to-one chance that teams cannot still be separated, lots would be drawn.

The message is clear. Victory is the first requirement against Scotland here tomorrow but there can be no holding back achieving it - as there was against Bangladesh in Dublin last Friday.

Four down for 55 in the 23rd over, they were allowed to recover to 182 all out in the 50th, aided by 25 wides and lack-lustre outcricket, and it took as many as 46.3 overs to reach the target.

There were extenuating circumstances that are no longer applicable.

A loss in their first match, to Pakistan, and the worrying memory of Kenya 1996 prompted understandable care and attention. The Arctic weather was a discouraging factor.

That is now out of the way and New Zealand, highly rated following their demolition of Australia, have been taken care of.

The attitude against the winless Scots has to be aggressive and uncompromising.

Source :: The Barbados Nation